Citation

Winter JM, Lemeire J, Meganck S, Geboers J, Rossi G, Mokros A. J. Investig. Psych. Offender Profil. 2013; 10(1): 28-56.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2013, John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1002/jip.1372

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The empirical support for linkage analysis is steadily increasing, but the question remains as to what method of linking is the most effective. We compared a more theory-based, dimensional behavioural approach with a rather pragmatic, multivariate behavioural approach with regard to their accuracy in linking serial sexual assaults in a UK sample of serial sexual assaults (n = 90) and one-off sexual assaults (n = 129). Their respective linkage accuracy was assessed by (1) using seven dimensions derived by non-parametric Mokken scale analysis (MSA) as predictors in discriminant function analysis (DFA) and (2) 46 crime scene characteristics simultaneously in a naive Bayesian classifier (NBC). The dimensional scales predicted 28.9% of the series correctly, whereas the NBC correctly identified 34.5% of the series. However, a subsequent inclusion of non-serial offences in the target group decreased the amount of correct links in the dimensional approach (MSA-DFA: 8.9%; NBC: 32.2%). Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used as a more objective comparison of the two methods under both conditions, confirming that each achieved good accuracies (AUCs = .74-.89), but the NBC performed significantly better than the dimensional approach. The consequences for the practical implementation in behavioural case linkage are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Language: en