Citation

Davis GA. J. Transp. Saf. Secur. 2009; 1(3): 181-189.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2009, Southeastern Transportation Center, and Beijing Jiaotong University, Publisher Informa - Taylor and Francis Group)

DOI

10.1080/19439960903149579

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In accident reconstruction, information derived from samples of crash tests can on occasion replace subjective prior information reflecting expert opinion. A method for accomplishing this, based on a straightforward application of Bayesian reasoning as used in statistics, is applied to three-accident scenarios: estimating critical speeds from yaw marks, estimating impact speed from crush, and estimating impact speed from pedestrian throw distance. The method is evaluated by comparing the estimates to measurements obtained in crash tests. In almost all cases the measured speeds were captured by the posterior 95% credible intervals.