Citation

Shope JT, Molnar LJ. J. Saf. Res. 2004; 35(3): 337-344.

Affiliation

University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, 2901 Baxter Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2150, USA. jshope@umich.edu

Copyright

(Copyright © 2004, U.S. National Safety Council, Publisher Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.jsr.2004.04.001

PMID

15288567

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: To evaluate the four-year outcome of Michigan's graduated driver licensing (GDL) program, motor-vehicle crash data for 16-year-old drivers in 1996 (pre-GDL), and 1998-2001 (post-GDL) were analyzed. METHOD: Relative risks and 95% confidence intervals for several crash types were computed, and pre-post-GDL population-based crash rates were compared. Reductions in crash risks among 16-year-olds previously found in 1998 and 1999 were generally maintained in 2000 and 2001. RESULTS: Reductions in crash risk among 16-year-olds from 1996 to 2001 were 29% for all, 44% for fatal, 38% each for nonfatal-injury and fatal-plus-nonfatal-injury, 32% for day, 31% for evening, 59% for night, 32% for single-vehicle, and 28% for multi-vehicle crashes. Even after adjusting for more general population-wide changes among drivers 25 years and older that might have contributed to changes in 16-year-old crash risk, reductions remained impressive (19% for all crashes in 2001). IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: As one approach to reducing teenage motor-vehicle morbidity and mortality, GDL remains promising.