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Abstract
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[Added by SafetyLit: Cliometrics is a term for the systematic application of economic theory, econometric techniques, and other formal or mathematical methods to the study of history. The term cliometrics comes from Clio, who was the muse of history, and was originally coined by the mathematical economist Stanley Reiter in 1960.]
This article aims to provide a clearer explanation for the conditions of air-crash occurrence in the world during the 1950 to 2008 period. The authors use the modeling techniques of the vector auto-regression and the vector error correction (VEC) models. The authors seek to shed light on the dynamics and understand the long-run interactions between the explanatory factors of air crashes and the probable correlation with their growing number and provide clues to the following issues: What are the most striking factors in the occurrence of air crashes in the world? How do the accident factors interact within the short-, medium-, and long-run to bring about an air crash? What are the (direct and indirect) links of influence between the recorded accidents and their causes? The results show that there are many causal relationships between the investigated factors. The air-crash factors converge and are complementary and interdependent. For example, weather conditions are responsible for about one third of human error. Factors considered in the literature as "others" because of their unknown character are identified in this study as human factors that account for 75% of the key factors in air-crash research such as pilots, air traffic controllers, chief maintenance staff, engineers, and survey offices. |