Citation

Shore ER, Maguin E. Eval. Program Plann. 1988; 11(3): 245-254.

Affiliation

Psychology Department, Wichita State University, Wichita, KS , U.S.A.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1988, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/0149-7189(88)90020-1

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

On July 1, 1982 a revised law governing the procedures and punishments for Driving Under the Influence went into effect in the state of Kansas. The revisions were expected to deter people from impaired driving and, thus, lower the number of traffic accidents. The effect of the law on fatal accidents was studied using time-series analysis. The same technique was used to investigate the effect of economic conditions and vehicle miles travelled on accidents. The law change was found to produce a significant decrease in fatalities. Changes in fatalities were not correlated with economic conditions. The effect of the law change persisted throughout the 18 month follow-up period.These results support deterrence theory, which predicts that the targeted behavior will decline with the perception, enhanced in this case by extensive media coverage, of increased certainty of punishment. The longevity of the effect differs from prior experiences, in which initial declines were followed by relatively rapid returns to pre-intervention rates. The duration of the deterrence effect may be a function of changes in public attitudes, changes in drinking-driving behaviors, or continued publicity concerning drinking and driving.This work highlights the importance of the study of local interventions, which can reveal effects that might be lost when state data are pooled for nationwide analyses.