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Journal Article

Citation

Kwak HC, Kho S. Accid. Anal. Prev. 2016; 88: 9-19.

Affiliation

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.aap.2015.12.004

PMID

26710266

Abstract

In order to improve traffic safety on expressways, it is important to develop proactive safety management strategies with consideration for segment types and traffic flow states because crash mechanisms have some differences by each condition. The primary objective of this study is to develop real-time crash risk prediction models for different segment types and traffic flow states on expressways. The mainline of expressways is divided into basic segment and ramp vicinity, and the traffic flow states are classified into uncongested and congested conditions. Also, Korean expressways have irregular intervals between loop detector stations. Therefore, we investigated on the effect and application of the detector stations at irregular intervals for the crash risk prediction on expressways. The most significant traffic variables were selected by conditional logistic regression analysis which could control confounding factors. Based on the selected traffic variables, separate models to predict crash risk were developed using genetic programming technique. The model estimation results showed that the traffic flow characteristics leading to crashes are differed by segment type and traffic flow state. Especially, the variables related to the intervals between detector stations had a significant influence on crash risk prediction under the uncongested condition. Finally, compared with the single model for all crashes and the logistic models used in previous studies, the proposed models showed higher prediction performance. The results of this study can be applied to develop more effective proactive safety management strategies for different segment types and traffic flow states on expressways with loop detector stations at irregular intervals.


Language: en

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