Citation

Dieckmann NF, Gregory R, Peters E, Hartman R. Risk Anal. 2016; 37(3): 471-486.

Affiliation

The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA, USA.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, Society for Risk Analysis, Publisher John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/risa.12639

PMID

27667776

Abstract

In this article, we consider a novel criterion for evaluating representations of uncertainty ranges, namely, the extent to which a representation enhances motivated reasoning. In two studies, we show that perceptions of the distribution underlying ambiguous numerical ranges are affected by the motivations and worldviews of end users. This motivated reasoning effect remained after controlling for objective numeracy and fluid intelligence but was attenuated when the correct interpretation was made clear. We suggest that analysts and communicators explicitly consider the potential for motivated evaluation when evaluating uncertainty displays.

© 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Language: en