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Journal Article

Citation

Lischer SK. Stud. Conflict Terrorism 1999; 22(4): 331-355.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1999, Informa - Taylor and Francis Group)

DOI

10.1080/105761099265676

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Communal war results from two types of change-increases in fear and increases in the feasibility of gaining aims by force. Fear, or insecurity, becomes a trigger of war when an oppressed group perceives a heightened threat to its cultural or physical survival. Fear of domination or extinction leads to war when a threatened group believes that it can reduce or avoid danger by using violence. Indicators of increasing feasibility of violence include shifts in relative military capability, heightened international legitimacy, and false optimism. The combination of a security dilemma and the ability to act determines when, and if, simmering ethnic tensions will erupt into violence. The propositions presented in this article are tested using the cases of ethnic civil war in Nigeria and Sudan. Those conflicts broke out when fearful communal groups saw violence as a practical solution to political oppression. The analysis of causation suggests that prevention of conflict must deactivate the volatile mix of fear and feasibility in order to achieve a stable peace.

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