Citation

Ji Y, Wang W, Deng W. J. Wuhan Univ. Technol. Transp. Sci. Eng. 2006; 30(3): 433-436.

Affiliation

Transportation College, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China

Copyright

(Copyright © 2006, Wuhan University of Technology)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Based on the analyses of the deficiency in practical use of present road accident prediction methods, the multi-factor time series method is presented and the multi-factor time series model for forecasting road accidents is built in this paper. The model has merits of the signal factor time series method and the multi-element linear regression method. Using the method of signal factor time series, factors affecting accidents can be forecasted easily and quickly. And with the method of multi-element linear regression, factors affecting accidents can be synthesized and general developing trend of road accidents can be acquired. The example shows that the model can be well applied to road accident prediction, and it has the advantages of less data needs, simple modeling technique, quick computation and so on.