Citation

Holschneider M, Teramo A, Bottari A, Termini D. Nat. Hazards 2004; 31(1): 1-19.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2004, Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

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PMID

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Abstract

Seismic hazard evaluation is proposed by a methodological approach that allows the study of the influence of different modelling assumptions relative to the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes on the maximum values of expected intensities. In particular, we show that the estimated hazard at a fixed point is very sensitive to the assumed spatial distribution of epicentres and their estimators. As we will see, the usual approach, based on uniformly distributing the epicentres inside each seismogenic zone is likely to be biased towards lower expected intensity values. This will be made more precise later. Recall that the term "bias" means, that the expectation of the estimated quantity ( taken as a random variable on the space of statistics) is different from the expectation of the quantity itself. Instead, our approach, based on an estimator that takes into account the observed clustering of events is essentially unbiased, as shown by a Monte-Carlo simulation, and is configured on a 11011-isotropic macroseismic attenuation model which is independently estimated for each zone.

Language: en