Citation

Cozzani V, Gubinelli G, Antonioni G, Spadoni G, Zanelli S. J. Hazard. Mater. 2005; 127(1-3): 14-30.

Affiliation

Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, Mineraria e delle Tecnologie Ambientali, Alma Mater Studiorum, Università di Bologna, viale Risorgimento n.2, 40136 Bologna, Italy.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2005, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.jhazmat.2005.07.003

PMID

16102897

Abstract

A systematic procedure for the quantitative assessment of the risk caused by domino effect was developed. Escalation vectors, defined as the physical effects responsible of possible accident propagation, were identified for the primary scenarios usually considered in the QRA procedure. Starting from the assessment of the escalation vectors, the methodology allows the identification of credible domino scenarios and the estimation of their expected severity. A simplified technique was introduced for consequence and vulnerability assessment of domino scenarios. The overall contribution of domino effect to individual risk, societal risk and to the potential life loss index was calculated by a specific procedure, taking into account all the credible combinations of secondary events that may be triggered by each primary scenario. The development of a software package allowed the application of the procedure to several case-studies. The results evidenced the relevant modifications of the risk indexes caused by domino effect and the importance of including the quantitative analysis of domino effect in QRA, in order to correctly assess and control the risk caused by escalation scenarios.