Citation

Joksch HC, Wuerdemann H. Accid. Anal. Prev. 1973; 5(1): 1-26.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1973, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The trend of automobile occupant fatalities from 1950 to 1968 was studied. The influence of such factors as vehicle age, improved doorlocks, small cars, speed, seat belt use, driver age, and the Interstate Highway System was estimated on the basis of past studies. The relation of 20 other factors to this trend was explored by regression analyses. No satisfactory representation of the trend could be achieved without including either new automobile registration data or the Index of Industrial Production in the independent variables. A hypothesis explaining this was proposed. The number of automobiles, by model year groups corresponding to the availability of crash phase countermeasures, involved in potentially fatal accidents, was projected to 1968. Applying the reduction in fatality risk to these figures, fatality trends with countermeasures are projected to 1980 and compared with a projection assuming no countermeasures.