Citation

Suls J, Rose JP, Windschitl PD, Smith AR. Person. Soc. Psychol. Bull. 2013; 39(5): 691-702.

Affiliation

1University of Iowa, Iowa City, USA.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2013, SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.1177/0146167213477457

PMID

23456561

Abstract

Effects of exposure to a severe weather disaster on perceived future vulnerability were assessed in college students, local residents contacted through random-digit dialing, and community residents of affected versus unaffected neighborhoods. Students and community residents reported being less vulnerable than their peers at 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year after the disaster. In Studies 1 and 2, absolute risk estimates were more optimistic with time, whereas comparative vulnerability was stable. Residents of affected neighborhoods (Study 3), surprisingly, reported less comparative vulnerability and lower "gut-level" numerical likelihood estimates at 6 months, but later their estimates resembled the unaffected residents. Likelihood estimates (10%-12%), however, exceeded the 1% risk calculated by storm experts, and gut-level versus statistical-level estimates were more optimistic. Although people believed they had approximately a 1-in-10 chance of injury from future tornadoes (i.e., an overestimate), they thought their risk was lower than peers.

Language: en