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Abstract
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OBJECTIVES
Our goal was to identify if there might be associations between a major public health problem, i.e., violent deaths, and a potential macro-level determinant, i.e., political party in office.
METHODS
Vital statistics, labor statistics, and GDP data were obtained for the years 1900-2010. Independent t tests were used to compare homicide, suicide, and total violent death rates during Republican and Democratic administrations and between states voting for Republican and Democratic presidential candidates. Correlation and hidden Markov modeling were used to assess the relationships among party of the president and changes in unemployment rate, GDP, and violent death.
RESULTS
The party of the president was significantly associated with annual changes in suicide and homicide rates, unemployment rates, and GDP (p < 0.001 to p < 0.05, depending on the measure and time lag), with higher violent death and unemployment increases being associated with Republican presidencies and higher GDP with Democratic ones. Adjusting for unemployment and GDP reduced but did not eliminate party effect. Suicide and homicide rates were higher in states that voted for the Republican candidate for presidency than in states that voted for the Democratic candidate (p < 0.0001 and p < 0.07).
CONCLUSIONS
Violent deaths were associated with an increase under Republican presidents and a decrease under Democratic presidents, were higher in states that vote for the Republican than for the Democratic presidential candidates, and increased alongside increasing unemployment and falling national GDP. As with heart disease, obesity and cancer, identified associations with environmental factors can increase understanding of the public health problem and point to ways of reducing it. Future research beyond the boundaries of the United States could help elucidate the relationship between government, socioeconomic policy orientation, and violent death rates. |