Citation

Branas CC, Kondo MC, Murphy SM, South EC, Polsky D, Macdonald JM. Am. J. Public Health 2016; 106(12): 2158-2164.

Affiliation

Charles C. Branas is with the Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology and the Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia. Michelle C. Kondo is with the US Department of Agriculture-Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Philadelphia. Sean M. Murphy is with the Department of Health Policy and Administration, Washington State University, Spokane. Eugenia C. South is with the Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Perelman School of Medicine. Daniel Polsky is with the Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, the Wharton School of Business, and the Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania. John M. MacDonald is with the Department of Criminology and the Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania, School of Arts and Sciences, Philadelphia.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, American Public Health Association)

DOI

10.2105/AJPH.2016.303434

PMID

27736217

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: To determine if blight remediation of abandoned buildings and vacant lots can be a cost-beneficial solution to firearm violence in US cities.

METHODS: We performed quasi-experimental analyses of the impacts and economic returns on investment of urban blight remediation programs involving 5112 abandoned buildings and vacant lots on the occurrence of firearm and nonfirearm violence in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, from 1999 to 2013. We adjusted before-after percent changes and returns on investment in treated versus control groups for sociodemographic factors.

RESULTS: Abandoned building remediation significantly reduced firearm violence -39% (95% confidence interval [CI] = -28%, -50%; P < .05) as did vacant lot remediation (-4.6%; 95% CI = -4.2%, -5.0%; P < .001). Neither program significantly affected nonfirearm violence. Respectively, taxpayer and societal returns on investment for the prevention of firearm violence were $5 and $79 for every dollar spent on abandoned building remediation and $26 and $333 for every dollar spent on vacant lot remediation.

CONCLUSIONS: Abandoned buildings and vacant lots are blighted structures seen daily by urban residents that may create physical opportunities for violence by sheltering illegal activity and illegal firearms. Urban blight remediation programs can be cost-beneficial strategies that significantly and sustainably reduce firearm violence. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print October 13, 2016: e1-e7. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2016.303434).

Language: en