Citation

Fu X, Gu CS, Su HZ, Qin XN. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018; 15(5): e15050886.

Affiliation

College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China. Qin_xn@163.com.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2018, MDPI: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute)

DOI

10.3390/ijerph15050886

PMID

29710824

Abstract

Earth-rock dams make up a large proportion of the dams in China, and their failures can induce great risks. In this paper, the risks associated with earth-rock dam failure are analyzed from two aspects: the probability of a dam failure and the resulting life loss. An event tree analysis method based on fuzzy set theory is proposed to calculate the dam failure probability. The life loss associated with dam failure is summarized and refined to be suitable for Chinese dams from previous studies. The proposed method and model are applied to one reservoir dam in Jiangxi province. Both engineering and non-engineering measures are proposed to reduce the risk. The risk analysis of the dam failure has essential significance for reducing dam failure probability and improving dam risk management level.

Language: en

Keywords

ETA method; dam failure probability; earth-rock dam; fuzzy set theory; life loss; risk analysis