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Journal Article

Citation

Rau CS, Kuo PJ, Chien PC, Huang CY, Hsieh HY, Hsieh CH. PLoS One 2018; 13(11): e0207192.

Affiliation

Department of Plastic Surgery, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Taiwan.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2018, Public Library of Science)

DOI

10.1371/journal.pone.0207192

PMID

30412613

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to build a model of machine learning (ML) for the prediction of mortality in patients with isolated moderate and severe traumatic brain injury (TBI).

METHODS: Hospitalized adult patients registered in the Trauma Registry System between January 2009 and December 2015 were enrolled in this study. Only patients with an Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score ≥ 3 points related to head injuries were included in this study. A total of 1734 (1564 survival and 170 non-survival) and 325 (293 survival and 32 non-survival) patients were included in the training and test sets, respectively.

RESULTS: Using demographics and injury characteristics, as well as patient laboratory data, predictive tools (e.g., logistic regression [LR], support vector machine [SVM], decision tree [DT], naive Bayes [NB], and artificial neural networks [ANN]) were used to determine the mortality of individual patients. The predictive performance was evaluated by accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, as well as by area under the curve (AUC) measures of receiver operator characteristic curves. In the training set, all five ML models had a specificity of more than 90% and all ML models (except the NB) achieved an accuracy of more than 90%. Among them, the ANN had the highest sensitivity (80.59%) in mortality prediction. Regarding performance, the ANN had the highest AUC (0.968), followed by the LR (0.942), SVM (0.935), NB (0.908), and DT (0.872). In the test set, the ANN had the highest sensitivity (84.38%) in mortality prediction, followed by the SVM (65.63%), LR (59.38%), NB (59.38%), and DT (43.75%).

CONCLUSIONS: The ANN model provided the best prediction of mortality for patients with isolated moderate and severe TBI.


Language: en

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