Citation

Phalen P, Bridgeford E, Gant L, Kivisto A, Ray B, Fitzgerald S. Am. J. Public Health 2020; ePub(ePub): ePub.

Affiliation

Peter Phalen is with the Veterans Affairs Capitol Health Care Network Mental Illness Research, Education, and Clinical Center, and the Department of Psychiatry of the University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore. Erricka Bridgeford is with Baltimore Ceasefire 365, Baltimore, and Community Mediation Maryland, Takoma Park. Letrice Gant is with Baltimore Ceasefire 365. Aaron Kivisto is with the University of Indianapolis, Indianapolis, IN. Brad Ray is with the Center for Behavioral Health and Justice at Wayne State University School of Social Work, Detroit, MI. Simon Fitzgerald is with Kings County Hospital Center and the State University of New York Downstate College of Medicine, Brooklyn, NY, and Baltimore Ceasefire 365.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, American Public Health Association)

DOI

10.2105/AJPH.2019.305513

PMID

32078352

Abstract

Objectives. To estimate the impact of recurring community-led, weekend-long ceasefires on gun violence in the City of Baltimore, Maryland.Methods. The City of Baltimore releases detailed data on all crimes occurring in the city. We compiled daily counts of fatal and nonfatal shootings occurring between January 2012 and July 2019 and fit a Bayesian model to estimate the impact of the ceasefires on gun violence during designated weekends after accounting for yearly seasonality, day of the week, calendar days, and overall time trends. We also looked at the 3-day periods following each 3-day ceasefire weekend to test for a possible postponement effect.Results. There was an estimated 52% (95% credible interval [CI] = 33%, 67%) reduction in gun violence during ceasefire days and no evidence of a postponement effect on either the next 3 days or the next 3-day weekend following each ceasefire weekend (incidence rate ratio = 0.88; 95% CI = 0.72, 1.06).Conclusions. The Baltimore Ceasefire weekends may be an effective short-term intervention for reducing gun violence. Future research should aim to understand the key components and transferability of the intervention. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print February 20, 2020: e1-e6. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2019.305513).

Language: en