Citation

Liu Z, Wu H, Li R. Accid. Anal. Prev. 2020; 141: e105547.

Affiliation

Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China. Electronic address: lrmin@tsinghua.edu.cn.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.aap.2020.105547

PMID

32334154

Abstract

A penalty mechanism is usually considered as a powerful means to reduce the probability of traffic violations and accidents by encouraging drivers to comply with traffic regulations. Penalty point and fine strategies are often used in parallel. Different degrees of penalty points and/or fines are imposed according to the specific violation behavior of drivers. However, the question of whether each penalty produces positive effects in maintaining a driver's compliance with traffic regulations and promoting the driver's traffic safety is still unanswered. This study focuses on quantifying the effects of penalty point and fine strategies on violation recurrences and accident occurrences of drivers. A frailty survival analysis method is conducted to jointly model the occurrence of violation and accident events of each individual. The frailty term in the model is leveraged to address the unobserved heterogeneity among drivers. Personal characteristics and penalty status are also incorporated as covariates in the model. Actual violation and accident data from a province in China are utilized to calibrate the model. The results show that penalty point strategy exhibits deterrent and binding effects; however, penalty fine strategy does not show the expected effects. The number of years of driving is also a significant factor that influences violation recurrence and accident occurrence. The present study provides insightful information for improving violation penalty mechanisms.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Language: en

Keywords

Personal characteristics; Recurrent and terminal events; Survival analysis; Traffic accident; Traffic violation