Citation

Ohlin LE, Duncan OD. Am. J. Sociol. 1949; 54(5): 441-452.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1949, University of Chicago Press)

DOI

10.1086/220398

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

An index is proposed for measuring the efficiency of prediction. Values are computed for the principal prediction tables in the literature, permitting rigorous comparisons of studies and alternate scoring methods. The efficiency of prediction is found to drop markedly in follow-up samples. The test of efficiency employed is contrasted with previous, inadequate methods of evaluation. The types of error in prediction suggest future research.