@article{ref1,
title="Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes",
journal="Science",
year="2010",
author="Bender, Morris A. and Knutson, Thomas R. and Tuleya, Robert E. and Sirutis, Joseph J. and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Garner, Stephen T. and Held, Isaac M.",
volume="327",
number="5964",
pages="454-458",
abstract="Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20 degrees N.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0036-8075",
doi="10.1126/science.1180568",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1180568"
}