@article{ref1,
title="Development of a tool for prediction of falls in rehabilitation settings (Predict_FIRST): a prospective cohort study",
journal="Journal of rehabilitation medicine",
year="2010",
author="Sherrington, Catherine and Lord, Stephen R. and Close, Jacqueline C. T. and Barraclough, Elizabeth and Taylor, Matthew and Oâ Rourke, Sandra and Kurrle, Susan and Tiedemann, Anne and Cumming, Robert G. and Herbert, Robert D.",
volume="42",
number="5",
pages="482-488",
abstract="OBJECTIVE: To develop and internally validate a simple falls prediction tool for rehabilitation settings. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 533 inpatients. METHODS: Possible predictors of falls were collected from medical records, interview and physical assessment. Falls during inpatient stays were monitored. RESULTS: Fourteen percent of participants fell. A multivariate model to predict falls included: male gender (odds ratio (OR) 2.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.57-4.64), central nervous system medications (OR 2.50, 95% CI 1.47-4.25), a fall in the previous 12 months (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.07-4.56), frequent toileting (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.27-3.62) and tandem stance inability (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.11-3.59). The area under the curve for this model was 0.74 (95% CI 0.68-0.80). The Predict_FIRST tool is a unit weighted adaptation of this model (i.e. 1 point allocated for each predictor) and its area under the curve was 0.73 (95% CI 0.68-0.79). Predicted and actual falls risks corresponded closely. CONCLUSION: This tool provides a simple way to quantify the probability with which an individual patient will fall during a rehabilitation stay.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1650-1977",
doi="10.2340/16501977-0550",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.2340/16501977-0550"
}