@article{ref1,
title="Predicting Conflict in Space and Time",
journal="Journal of conflict resolution",
year="2010",
author="Weidmann, Nils B. and Ward, Michael D.",
volume="54",
number="6",
pages="883-901",
abstract="The prediction of conflict constitutes a challenge to social scientists. This article explores whether the incorporation of geography can help us make our forecasts of political violence more accurate. The authors describe a spatially and temporally autoregressive discrete regression model, following the framework of Geyer and Thompson. This model is applied to geo-located data on attributes and conflict events in Bosnia over the period from March 1992 to October 1995. Results show that there is a strong spatial as well as temporal dimension to the outbreak of violence in Bosnia. The authors then explore the use of this model for predicting future conflict. Using a simulation approach, the predictive accuracy of the spatial—temporal model is compared to a standard regression model that only includes time lags. The results show that even in a difficult out-of-sample prediction task, the incorporation of space improves our forecasts of future conflict.<p />",
language="",
issn="0022-0027",
doi="10.1177/0022002710371669",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002710371669"
}