@article{ref1,
title="Valuing a Homeland Security Policy: Countermeasures for the Threats from Shoulder Mounted Missiles",
journal="NBER working papers series",
year="2008",
author="Smith, V. Kerry and Mansfield, Carol and Clayton, Laurel",
volume="2008",
number="online",
pages="w14325-w14325",
abstract="This paper reports estimates for the ex ante tradeoffs for three specific homeland security policies that all address a terrorist attack on commercial aircraft with shoulder mounted missiles.  Our analysis focuses on the willingness to pay for anti-missile laser jamming countermeasures mounted on commercial aircraft compared with two other policies as well as the prospect of remaining with the status quo. Our findings are based a stated preference conjoint survey conducted in 2006 and administered to a sample from Knowledge Networks' national internet panel. The estimates range from $100 to $220 annually per household.  Von Winterfeldt and O'Sullivan's [2006] analysis of the same laser jamming plan suggests that the countermeasures would be preferred if economic losses are above $74 billion, the probability of attack is larger than 0.37 in ten years, and if the cost of the measures is less than about $14 billion.  Our results imply that, using the most conservative of our estimates, a program with a cost consistent with their thresholds would yield significant aggregate net benefits.  More generally, this research grows out of a need to measure the benefits of an iconic public good -- national defense -- to assess the economic efficiency of Department of Homeland Security policies.<p />",
language="",
issn="0898-2937",
doi="",
url="http://dx.doi.org/"
}