@article{ref1,
title="Accurate reliability prediction",
journal="Reliability engineering",
year="1982",
author="Durr, A.C.",
volume="3",
number="6",
pages="475-485",
abstract="The requirement of a design to life cycle cost model for an accurate reliability prediction method that can be applied very early in a project's life is discussed. Current methods either lack accuracy or cannot be applied until extensive details of the equipment are available. Based empirically on the data, a model has been developed that uses a Weibull distribution of time between failures combined with time-variable failure rates. It assesses the equipment's function and technology and, in association with a modified parts count prediction, produces predictions that are both accurate and timely. The analysis has shown that the accuracy has improved from 30% of predictions within one standard deviation of the achieved reliability based on a straight parts count prediction, to 70% based on the Weibull time-between-failures model.<p />",
language="",
issn="0143-8174",
doi="10.1016/0143-8174(82)90037-3",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0143-8174(82)90037-3"
}