@article{ref1,
title="Evaluation of automobile safety regulations: The case of compulsory seat belt legislation in Australia",
journal="Policy sciences",
year="1980",
author="Conybeare, John A. C.",
volume="12",
number="1",
pages="27-39",
abstract="A basic tenet of the &quot;new conservatism&quot; in political economy is that government policies frequently lead to unintended consequences which may offset the benefits of the policy. Auto safety legislation may be a case in point. As the first country to make the wearing of seat belts compulsory, Australia is highly suitable as a case study. Traffic accident casualties were regressed on six independent variables for the pre-seat belt period 1949-71. The equations were then used to predict casualties for the period 1972-77, using the actual values of the independent variables. In the aggregate, predicted occupant casualties were higher than the actual rates, whereas non-occupant casualties were underpredicted by the equations. An additional test, using a dummy variable to predict the effect of seat belts, supported these conclusions. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that drivers respond to a reduction in risk by increasing driving intensity, shifting some of the welfare cost of auto safety legislation on to non-occupants, whose casualty rates are higher than they would have been in the absence of seat belt legislation.<p />",
language="",
issn="0032-2687",
doi="10.1007/BF00137361",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00137361"
}