@article{ref1,
title="Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010",
journal="Lancet",
year="2013",
author="Lozano, Rafael and Naghavi, Mohsen and Foreman, Kyle and Lim, Stephen and Shibuya, Kenji and Aboyans, Victor and Abraham, Jerry and Adair, Timothy and Aggarwal, Rakesh and Ahn, Stephanie Y. and Alvarado, Miriam and Anderson, H. Ross and Anderson, Laurie M. and Andrews, Kathryn G. and Atkinson, Charles and Baddour, Larry M. and Barker-Collo, Suzanne and Bartels, David H. and Bell, Michelle L. and Benjamin, Emelia J. and Bennett, Derrick and Bhalla, Kavi S. and Bikbov, Boris and Abdulhak, Aref Bin and Birbeck, Gretchen and Blyth, Fiona and Bolliger, Ian W. and Boufous, Soufiane and Bucello, Chiara and Burch, Michael and Burney, Peter and Carapetis, Jonathan and Chen, Honglei and Chou, David and Chugh, Sumeet S. and Coffeng, Luc E. and Colan, Steven D. and Colquhoun, Samantha and Colson, K. Ellicott and Condon, John and Connor, Myles D. and Cooper, Leslie T. and Corriere, Matthew and Cortinovis, Monica and de Vaccaro, Karen Courville and Couser, William and Cowie, Benjamin C. and Criqui, Michael H. and Cross, Marita and Dabhadkar, Kaustubh C. and Dahodwala, Nabila and De Leo, Diego and Degenhardt, Louisa and Delossantos, Allyne and Des Jarlais, Don C. and Dharmaratne, Samath D. and Dorsey, E. Ray and Driscoll, Tim and Duber, Herbert and Ebel, Beth E. and Erwin, Patricia J. and Espindola, Patricia and Ezzati, Majid and Feigin, Valery L. and Flaxman, Abraham D. and Forouzanfar, Mohammad H. and Fowkes, Francis Gerry R. and Franklin, Richard Charles and Fransen, Marlene and Freeman, Michael K. and Gabriel, Sherine E. and Gakidou, Emmanuela and Gaspari, Flavio and Gillum, Richard F. and Gonzalez-Medina, Diego and Halasa, Yara A. and Haring, Diana and Harrison, James Edward and Havmoeller, Rasmus and Hay, Roderick J. and Hotez, Peter J. and Hoy, Damian G. and Jacobsen, Kathryn H. and James, Spencer L. and Jasrasaria, Rashmi and Jayaraman, Sudha and Johns, Nicole and Karthikeyan, Ganesan and Kassebaum, Nicholas and Keren, Andre and Khoo, Jon-Paul and Knowlton, Lisa Marie and Kobusingye, Olive Chifefe and Koranteng, Adofo and Krishnamurthi, Rita and Lipnick, Michael and Lipshultz, Steven E. and Ohno, Summer Lockett and Mabweijano, Jacqueline and Macintyre, Michael F. and Mallinger, Leslie and March, Lyn and Marks, Guy B. and Marks, Robin and Matsumori, Akira and Matzopoulos, Richard and Mayosi, Bongani M. and McAnulty, John H. and McDermott, Mary M. and McGrath, John and Mensah, George A. and Merriman, Tony R. and Michaud, Catherine and Miller, Matthew C. and Miller, Ted R. and Mock, Charles and Mocumbi, Ana Olga and Mokdad, Ali A. and Moran, Andrew and Mulholland, Kim and Nair, M. Nathan and Naldi, Luigi and Narayan, K. M. Venkat and Nasseri, Kiumarss and Norman, Philip and O'Donnell, Martin and Omer, Saad B. and Ortblad, Katrina and Osborne, Richard and Ozgediz, Doruk and Pahari, Bishnu and Pandian, Jeyaraj Durai and Rivero, Andrea Panozo and Padilla, Rogelio Perez and Perez-Ruiz, Fernando and Perico, Norberto and Phillips, David and Pierce, Kelsey and Pope, C. Arden and Porrini, Esteban and Pourmalek, Farshad and Raju, Murugesan and Ranganathan, Dharani and Rehm, Jürgen T. and Rein, David B. and Remuzzi, Guiseppe and Rivara, Frederick P. and Roberts, Thomas and De Leòn, Felipe Rodriguez and Rosenfeld, Lisa C. and Rushton, Lesley and Sacco, Ralph L. and Salomon, Joshua A. and Sampson, Uchechukwu and Sanman, Ella and Schwebel, David C. and Segui-Gomez, Maria and Shepard, Donald S. and Singh, David and Singleton, Jessica and Sliwa, Karen and Smith, Emma and Steer, Andrew and Taylor, Jennifer A. and Thomas, Bernadette and Tleyjeh, Imad M. and Towbin, Jeffrey A. and Truelsen, Thomas and Undurraga, Eduardo A. and Venketasubramanian, N. and Vijayakumar, Lakshmi and Vos, Theo and Wagner, Gregory R. and Wang, Mengru and Wang, Wenzhi and Watt, Kerrianne and Weinstock, Martin A. and Weintraub, Robert and Wilkinson, James D. and Woolf, Anthony D. and Wulf, Sarah and Yeh, Pon-Hsiu and Yip, Paul and Zabetian, Azadeh and Zheng, Zhi-Jie and Lopez, Alan D. and Murray, Christopher Jl and Denenberg, Julie and Hoen, Bruno",
volume="380",
number="9859",
pages="2095-2128",
abstract="BACKGROUND: Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. METHODS: We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. FINDINGS: In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted. INTERPRETATION: Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0140-6736",
doi="10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61728-0",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61728-0"
}