@article{ref1,
title="Interpreting multiple risk scales for sex offenders: evidence for averaging",
journal="Psychological assessment",
year="2013",
author="Lehmann, Robert J. B. and Hanson, R. Karl and Babchishin, Kelly M. and Gallasch-Nemitz, Franziska and Biedermann, Jürgen and Dahle, Klaus-Peter",
volume="25",
number="3",
pages="1019-1024",
abstract="This study tested 3 decision rules for combining actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders into an overall evaluation of risk. Based on a 9-year follow-up of 940 adult male sex offenders, we found that Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), Static-99R, and Static-2002R predicted sexual, violent, and general recidivism and provided incremental information for the prediction of all 3 outcomes. Consistent with previous findings, the incremental effect of RRASOR was positive for sexual recidivism but negative for violent and general recidivism. Averaging risk ratios was a promising approach to combining these risk scales, showing good calibration between predicted (E) and observed (O) recidivism rates (E/O index = 0.93, 95% CI [0.79, 1.09]) and good discrimination (area under the curve = 0.73, 95% CI [0.69, 0.77]) for sexual recidivism. As expected, choosing the lowest (least risky) risk tool resulted in underestimated sexual recidivism rates (E/O = 0.67, 95% CI [0.57, 0.79]) and choosing the highest (riskiest) resulted in overestimated risk (E/O = 1.37, 95% CI [1.17, 1.60]). For the prediction of violent and general recidivism, the combination rules provided similar or lower discrimination compared with relying solely on the Static-99R or Static-2002R. The current results support an averaging approach and underscore the importance of understanding the constructs assessed by violence risk measures. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1040-3590",
doi="10.1037/a0033098",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0033098"
}