@article{ref1,
title="Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock",
journal="Scientific reports",
year="2013",
author="Omi, Takahiro and Ogata, Yosihiko and Hirata, Yoshito and Aihara, Kazuyuki",
volume="3",
number="",
pages="2218-2218",
abstract="Forecasting the aftershock probability has been performed by the authorities to mitigate hazards in the disaster area after a main shock. However, despite the fact that most of large aftershocks occur within a day from the main shock, the operational forecasting has been very difficult during this time-period due to incomplete recording of early aftershocks. Here we propose a real-time method for efficiently forecasting the occurrence rates of potential aftershocks using systematically incomplete observations that are available in a few hours after the main shocks. We demonstrate the method's utility by retrospective early forecasting of the aftershock activity of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake of M9.0 in Japan. Furthermore, we compare the results by the real-time data with the compiled preliminary data to examine robustness of the present method for the aftershocks of a recent inland earthquake in Japan.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="2045-2322",
doi="10.1038/srep02218",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep02218"
}