@article{ref1,
title="Macroeconomic and Social-Control Policy Influences on Crime Rate Changes, 1948-1985",
journal="American sociological review",
year="1988",
author="Devine, Joel A. and Sheley, Joseph F. and Smith, M. Dwayne",
volume="53",
number="3",
pages="407-420",
abstract="Informed by the insights of political economy, this study investigates the often-presumed though empirically elusive relationship between societal economic distress and crime. In a social-indicators model, we argue for including both unemployment and inflation rates as measures of the overall health of the economy. We contend that in the face of these destabilizing economic conditions, government engages in dualistic social control policies. On one hand, it attempts to discourage antisocial behavior via placative forms of control and, on the other, it exercises its deterrent capacities. Using annual time-series data for the period 1948-1985, we employ dynamic modeling techniques to examine these influences on annual fluctuations in rates of homicide, robbery, and burglary. The results yield mixed support for the hypothesized relationships, with the posited model gaining potency as we move from explaining more violent to less violent offenses. Finally, these findings hold when we control for changes in two other theoretically important influences: criminal opportunity and the age structure of the population. (abstract Adapted from Source: American Sociological Review, 1988. Copyright © 1988 by the American Sociological Association)Socioeconomic FactorsCrime Rates1940s1950s1960s1970s1980sViolence RatesHomicide RatesRobbery RatesBurglary RatesCrime CausesViolence CausesEconomic Inequality07-02<p />",
language="en",
issn="0003-1224",
doi="",
url="http://dx.doi.org/"
}