@article{ref1,
title="Decision-making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands",
journal="Disasters",
year="2014",
author="Kolen, Bas and Helsloot, Ira",
volume="38",
number="3",
pages="610-635",
abstract="A traditional view of decision-making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the 'top strategic decision-making' for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision-making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision-makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision-making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0361-3666",
doi="10.1111/disa.12059",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/disa.12059"
}