@article{ref1,
title="The predictability of high-risk zones for heat-related mortality in seven US cities",
journal="Natural hazards",
year="2014",
author="Hondula, David M. and Davis, Robert E.",
volume="74",
number="2",
pages="771-788",
abstract="Heat-related mortality remains a public health challenge in the United States. The objective of this study was to determine the temporal consistency of high-risk zones for heat-related mortality using historical georeferenced mortality data from seven US cities. A generalized additive model was used to identify city-specific threshold temperatures associated with increased mortality, and then the mortality rate on threshold-exceeding days was calculated for each postal code comprising each study city. This process was iterated by withholding subsets of data from the model and assessing predictability via cross-validation. In all cities, the average mortality rate in postal codes targeted for intervention by the statistical model was higher than that in non-targeted areas. Targeted areas for interventions in the study data accounted for 50 % of excess heat-related deaths despite only accounting for 25 % of total mortality. Focusing intervention measures at certain geographical zones within urban areas could be an effective means of combating heat-related mortality because there is temporal consistency in places where the death rate is most sensitive to heat.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0921-030X",
doi="10.1007/s11069-014-1213-5",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1213-5"
}