@article{ref1,
title="Long-term earthquake prediction along the seismic zone of the Solomon Islands and New Hebrides based on the time- and magnitude-predictable model",
journal="Natural hazards",
year="1995",
author="Panagiotopoulos, D. G.",
volume="11",
number="1",
pages="17-43",
abstract="Instrumental and historical information on strong main-shocks for 13 seismogenic sources along the seismic zone of the Solomon Islands and New Hebrides has been used to show that the interevent time,T t (in years), between two strong earthquakes and the magnitude,M f, of the following mainshock are given by the relations $$begin{gathered} log T_t = 0.17M_{min } + 0.31M_p - 0.33 log dot M_O + 6.36, hfill \ M_f = 0.51M_{min } - 0.12M_p + 0.541 log dot M_O + 9.44, hfill \ end{gathered} $$ whereM min is the surface wave magnitude of the smallest main-shock considered,M p is the magnitude of the preceding mainshock, andM o is the moment rate per year in each source. On the basis of these relations, the probability for the occurrence of a mainshock during the decade 1993-2002 as well as the magnitude of this expected mainshock in each seismogenic source has been calculated. The highest probability value (P 10 = 0.79) was estimated for the seismogenic sources of Santa Cruz-Ndeni Islands (H 1) and Tana Island (H 5) for the occurrence of a large or great earthquake with expected magnitudesM f = 7.7 and 7.5, respectively.<p /><p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0921-030X",
doi="10.1007/BF00613308",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00613308"
}