@article{ref1,
title="The development and validation of an actuarial risk assessment tool for the prediction of first-time offending",
journal="International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology",
year="2014",
author="Assink, Mark and van der Put, Claudia E. and Stams, Geert Jan J. M.",
volume="60",
number="7",
pages="847-864",
abstract="For prevention purposes, it is important that police officers can estimate the risk for delinquency among juveniles who were involved in a criminal offense, but not in the role of a suspect. In the present study, the Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool for First-Time Offending (Y-ARAT-FO) was developed based solely on police records with the aim to enable Dutch police officers to predict the risk for first-time offending. For the construction of this initial screening instrument, an Exhaustive Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector (Exhaustive CHAID) analysis was performed on a data set that was retrieved from the Dutch police system. The Y-ARAT-FO was developed on a sample of 1,368 juveniles and validated on a different sample of 886 juveniles showing moderate predictive accuracy in the validation sample (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] =.728). The predictive accuracy of the Y-ARAT-FO was considered sufficient to justify its use as an initial screening instrument by the Dutch police.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0306-624X",
doi="10.1177/0306624X14558204",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0306624X14558204"
}