@article{ref1,
title="Transition probabilities for four states of alcohol use in adolescence and young adulthood: what factors matter when?",
journal="Addiction",
year="2015",
author="Probst, Charlotte and Moyo, Daniel and Purshouse, Robin and Rehm, Jürgen",
volume="110",
number="8",
pages="1272-1280",
abstract="BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Risky single occasion drinking (RSOD) is a health threat, particularly in younger ages. The study aimed to quantify transition probabilities (TPs) between abstinence, use of alcohol, RSOD and frequent RSOD, and to understand how TPs are associated with key demographic factors. <br><br>DESIGN: Cohort study (baseline, two follow-ups). A Markov-model was fitted to estimate annual TPs and hazard ratios (HRs) for age, sex, and socioeconomic status (SES). SETTING: Adolescent and young adult general population of Munich (Germany) and surrounding areas. PARTICIPANTS: 3,021 persons aged 14-25 at baseline in 1995 followed-up in 1998/1999 (N = 2,548) and 2003 to 2005 (N = 2,210). MEASUREMENTS: Alcohol use, RSOD status, age, sex, and SES (subjective financial situation) were assessed in a standardized interview. <br><br>FINDINGS: The highest TPs (>65%) were found for staying in the same drinking state. Higher age (HR for one year increase 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84-0.91), being female (hazard ratio (HR) 0.30, 95% CI 0.21-0.42), and a high SES (HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.43-0.97) were associated with a lower hazard to progress from use to RSOD. While age was predominantly associated with transitions between abstinence and alcohol use, sex was more relevant for transitions associated with RSOD and frequent RSOD. <br><br>CONCLUSIONS: German adolescents and young adults tend to be stable in the drinking states of abstinence, use of alcohol, risky single occasion drinking (RSOD), and frequent RSOD. Females are less likely to transition to riskier states and more likely to transition back from frequent RSOD, higher age is associated with lower hazard of transitioning, and participants of higher socioeconomic status are less likely to transition from 'use of alcohol' to 'RSOD'.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0965-2140",
doi="10.1111/add.12985",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/add.12985"
}