@article{ref1,
title="Risk score for predicting mortality in flail chest",
journal="Annals of thoracic surgery",
year="2015",
author="Zehr, Meaghan and Klar, Neil and Malthaner, Richard A.",
volume="100",
number="1",
pages="223-228",
abstract="BACKGROUND: Flail chest injuries are associated with high mortality and morbidity. Despite evidence that operative repair of flail chest is beneficial, it is rarely done. We sought to create a simple risk score using available preoperative covariates to calculate individual risk of mortality in flail chest. <br><br>METHODS: A logistic regression model was trained on Ontario Trauma Registry data to generate a mortality risk score. The final model was validated for calibration and discrimination and corrected for optimism. <br><br>RESULTS: The model uses five risk factors that are readily obtained during the initial assessment of the trauma patient: age, Glasgow Coma Score, ventilation, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, and number of comorbidities. It was determined that less than 6 points is consistent with 1% observed mortality, 6 to 10 points predicts 5% mortality, 11 to 15 points predicts 22% mortality, and 16 or more points predicts 46% mortality. <br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a simple model that can be easily applied at bedside to predict mortality in patients with flail chest by accessing a spreadsheet program in an application or other handheld computer device. This model has the potential to be a useful tool for surgeons considering operative repair of flail chest.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0003-4975",
doi="10.1016/j.athoracsur.2015.03.090",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.athoracsur.2015.03.090"
}