@article{ref1,
title="Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011",
journal="International journal of occupational and environmental health",
year="2015",
author="Karimlou, Masoud and Salehi, Masoud and Imani, Mehdi and Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh and Dehnad, Afsaneh and Vahabi, Nasim and Bakhtiyari, Mahmood",
volume="21",
number="4",
pages="279-284",
abstract="BACKGROUND: Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. <br><br>OBJECTIVES: To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. <br><br>METHODS: In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. <br><br>RESULTS: There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). <br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1077-3525",
doi="10.1179/2049396714Y.0000000108",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1179/2049396714Y.0000000108"
}