@article{ref1,
title="Modelling relationships between match events and match outcome in elite football",
journal="European journal of sport science",
year="2015",
author="Liu, Hongyou and Hopkins, Will G. and Gómez, Miguel-Ángel",
volume="16",
number="5",
pages="516-525",
abstract="Identifying match events that are related to match outcome is an important task in football [soccer] match analysis. Here we have used generalised mixed linear modelling to determine relationships of 16 football match events and 1 contextual variable (game location: home/away) with the match outcome. Statistics of 320 close matches (goal difference ≤ 2) of season 2012-2013 in the Spanish First Division Professional Football League were analysed. Relationships were evaluated with magnitude-based inferences and were expressed as extra matches won or lost per 10 close matches for an increase of two within-team or between-team standard deviations (SD) of the match event (representing effects of changes in team values from match to match and of differences between average team values, respectively). There was a moderate positive within-team effect from shots on target (3.4 extra wins per 10 matches; 99% confidence limits ±1.0), and a small positive within-team effect from total shots (1.7 extra wins; ±1.0). Effects of most other match events were related to ball possession, which had a small negative within-team effect (1.2 extra losses; ±1.0) but a small positive between-team effect (1.7 extra wins; ±1.4). Game location showed a small positive within-team effect (1.9 extra wins; ±0.9). In analyses of nine combinations of team and opposition end-of-season rank (classified as high, medium, low), almost all between-team effects were unclear, while within-team effects varied depending on the strength of team and opposition. Some of these findings will be useful to coaches and performance analysts when planning training sessions and match tactics.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1746-1391",
doi="10.1080/17461391.2015.1042527",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17461391.2015.1042527"
}