@article{ref1,
title="Responding to heatwave intensity: Excess Heat Factor is a superior predictor of health service utilisation and a trigger for heatwave plans",
journal="Australian and New Zealand journal of public health",
year="2015",
author="Scalley, Benjamin D. and Spicer, Tony and Jian, Le and Xiao, Jianguo and Nairn, John and Robertson, Andrew and Weeramanthri, Tarun",
volume="39",
number="6",
pages="582-587",
abstract="OBJECTIVE: To determine which measures of heatwave have the greatest predictive power for increases in health service utilisation in Perth, Western Australia. <br><br>METHODS: Three heatwave formulas were compared, using Poisson or zero-inflated Poisson regression, against the number of presentations to emergency departments from all causes, and the number of inpatient admissions from heat-related causes. The period from July 2006 to June 2013 was included. A series of standardised thresholds were calculated to allow comparison between formulas, in the absence of a gold standard definition of heatwaves. <br><br>RESULTS: Of the three heatwave formulas, Excess Heat Factor (EHF) produced the most clear dose-response relationship with Emergency Department presentations. The EHF generally predicted periods that resulted in a similar or higher rate of health service utilisation, as compared to the two other formulas, for the thresholds examined. <br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The EHF formula, which considers a period of acclimatisation as well as the maximum and minimum temperature, best predicted periods of greatest health service demand. The strength of the dose-response relationship reinforces the validity of the measure as a predictor of hazardous heatwave intensity. IMPLICATIONS: The findings suggest that the EHF formula is well suited for use as a means of activating heatwave plans and identifies the required level of response to extreme heatwave events as well as moderate heatwave events that produce excess health service demand.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1326-0200",
doi="10.1111/1753-6405.12421",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1753-6405.12421"
}