@article{ref1,
title="Current and projected heat-related morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island",
journal="Environmental health perspectives",
year="2015",
author="Kingsley, Samantha L. and Eliot, Melissa N. and Gold, Julia and Vanderslice, Robert R. and Wellenius, Gregory A.",
volume="124",
number="4",
pages="460-467",
abstract="BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to cause higher heat-related mortality, especially among the elderly and very young. However, additional studies are needed to clarify the effects of heat on morbidity across all age groups and across a wider range of temperatures. <br><br>OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of current and projected future temperatures on morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island. <br><br>METHODS: We used Poisson regression models to estimate the association between daily maximum temperature and rates of all-cause and heat-related emergency department (ED) admissions and all-cause mortality. We then used downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, a standardized set of climate change model simulations) projections to estimate the excess morbidity and mortality that would be observed if this population were exposed to the temperatures projected for 2046-2053 and 2092-2099 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP 8.5 and 4.5. <br><br>RESULTS: Between 2005 and 2012, an increase in maximum daily temperature from 75 to 85°F was associated with 1.3% and 23.9% higher rates of all-cause and heat-related ED visits, respectively. The corresponding effect estimate for all-cause mortality from 1999 to 2011 was 4.0%. The association with all-cause ED admissions was strongest for those aged <18 or ≥65 years, while the association with heat-related ED admissions was most pronounced among 18-64 year-olds. If this Rhode Island population were exposed to temperatures projected under RCP 8.5 for 2092-2099, we estimate that there would be 1.2% (range: 0.6-1.6%) and 24.4% (range: 6.9-41.8%) more all-cause and heat-related ED admissions, respectively, and 1.6% (range: 0.8-2.1%) more deaths annually between April and October. <br><br>CONCLUSIONS: All other factors held constant, our findings suggest that the current population of Rhode Island would experience substantially higher morbidity and mortality if maximum daily temperatures increase further as projected.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0091-6765",
doi="10.1289/ehp.1408826",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408826"
}