@article{ref1,
title="Spatial spillover effects of a community action programme targeting on-licensed premises on violent assaults: evidence from a natural experiment",
journal="Journal of epidemiology and community health",
year="2015",
author="Brännström, Lars and Trolldal, Bjorn and Menke, Martin",
volume="70",
number="3",
pages="226-230",
abstract="BACKGROUND: Spatial dependencies may influence the success of community action strategies to prevent and reduce harmful alcohol use. This study examined the effectiveness of a multicomponent Responsible Beverage Service (RBS) programme targeting on-licensed premises on police-recorded assaults in Swedish municipalities. It was expected that the implementation of the programme within any given municipality had an indirect effect by reducing violent assaults in adjacent municipalities. <br><br>METHODS: This study was a natural experiment exploiting the temporal and spatial variation in the implementation of the RBS programme to predict change in the rate of violent assaults in all Swedish municipalities during 1996-2009 (n=288; T=14; N=4 032). Yearly police-recorded violent assaults per 100 000 inhabitants aged 15 and above committed on weekend nights were used as a dependent variable. Programme fidelity was identified by means of survey data. A semilogarithmic fixed-effects spatial panel regression model was used to estimate the direct, indirect and total effects of the programme. <br><br>RESULTS: The direct, indirect and total effects were -1.8% (95% CI -4.4% to 0.8%), -5.8% (95% CI -11.5% to -0.1%) and -7.6% (95% CI -13.2% to -2.2%), respectively. Averaged over time and across all municipalities, implementing one additional programme component in all municipalities will thus reduce violent assaults in one typical municipality by nearly 8%. <br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The indirect effect of the programme was three times larger than its direct effect. Failing to account for such local spillover effects can result in a considerable underestimation of the programme's total impact and may lead to erroneous policy recommendations.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0143-005X",
doi="10.1136/jech-2015-206124",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jech-2015-206124"
}