@article{ref1,
title="Climate change effects on heat- and cold-related mortality in the Netherlands: a scenario-based integrated environmental health impact assessment",
journal="International journal of environmental research and public health",
year="2015",
author="Huynen, Maud M. T. E. and Martens, Pim",
volume="12",
number="10",
pages="13295-13320",
abstract="Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981-2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAFheat) and cold (PAFcold), by combining observed temperature-mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI'14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%-7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%-2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050-accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend-show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1661-7827",
doi="10.3390/ijerph121013295",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph121013295"
}