@article{ref1,
title="Ignoring scenarios in risk assessments: understanding the issue and improving current practice",
journal="Reliability engineering and system safety",
year="2016",
author="Aven, Terje",
volume="145",
number="",
pages="215-220",
abstract="In risk assessment we are typically faced with a huge number of potential scenarios and events, and in practise some of these are ignored, either because they are not identified or because of judged low probability. However, a scenario or an event may occur despite being extremely unlikely. Considering a large population of such scenarios and events, the occurrence probability is not necessarily negligible. In this paper we take a closer look at this challenge, the main aim being to clarify the issue and provide some recommendation on how to best handle it in practise. A main conclusion is that the risk assessment should be placed in a sufficiently broad framework, ensuring that the outcome and main event spaces are complete, and sufficient focus is placed on the hypotheses and assumptions supporting the detailed scenarios that are identified.<p />",
language="en",
issn="0951-8320",
doi="10.1016/j.ress.2015.08.012",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2015.08.012"
}