@article{ref1,
title="Comparison of simple vs. performance-based fall prediction models: data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study",
journal="Gerontology and geriatric medicine",
year="2015",
author="Gadkaree, Shekhar K. and Sun, Daniel Q. and Huang, Jin and Varadhan, Ravi and Agrawal, Yuri",
volume="1",
number="ePub",
pages="ePub-ePub",
abstract="OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive ability of standard falls prediction models based on physical performance assessments with more parsimonious prediction models based on self-reported data. <br><br>DESIGN: We developed a series of fall prediction models progressing in complexity and compared area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) across models. SETTING: National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), which surveyed a nationally-representative sample of Medicare enrollees (age ≥65) at baseline (Round 1: 2011-12) and one-year follow-up (Round 2: 2012-3). PARTICIPANTS: 6056 community-dwelling individuals who participated in Rounds 1 and 2 of NHATS. MEASUREMENTS: Primary outcomes were one-year incidence of &quot;any fall&quot; and &quot;recurrent falls&quot;. Prediction models were compared and validated in development and validation sets, respectively. <br><br>RESULTS: A prediction model that included demographic information, self-reported problems with balance and coordination, and previous fall history was the most parsimonious model that optimized AUC for both any fall (AUC=0.69, 95% CI 0.67-0.71) and recurrent falls (AUC=0.77, 95% CI 0.74-0.79) in the development set. Physical performance testing provided marginal additional predictive value. <br><br>CONCLUSION: A simple clinical prediction model that does not include physical performance testing could facilitate routine, widespread falls risk screening in the ambulatory care setting.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="2333-7214",
doi="10.1177/2333721415584850",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2333721415584850"
}