@article{ref1,
title="Psychometric prediction of penitentiary recidivism",
journal="Psicothema",
year="2016",
author="Medina García, Pedro M. and Baños Rivera, Rosa M.",
volume="28",
number="2",
pages="194-200",
abstract="BACKGROUND: Attempts to predict prison recidivism based on the personality have not been very successful. This study aims to provide data on recidivism prediction based on the scores on a personality questionnaire. For this purpose, a predictive model combining the actuarial procedure with a posteriori probability was developed, consisting of the probabilistic calculation of the effective verification of the event once it has already occurred. <br><br>METHOD: Cuestionario de Personalidad Situacional (CPS; Fernández, Seisdedos, & Mielgo, 1998) was applied to 978 male inmates classified as recidivists or non-recidivists. <br><br>RESULTS: High predictive power was achieved, with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (p <.001; Se = 0.012; 95% CI [0.826, 0.873]. The answers to the CPS items made it possible to properly discriminate 77.3% of the participants. <br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate the important role of the personality as a key factor in understanding delinquency and predicting recidivism.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0214-9915",
doi="10.7334/psicothema2015.269",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.7334/psicothema2015.269"
}