@article{ref1,
title="Revising probability estimates: why increasing likelihood means increasing impact",
journal="Journal of personality and social psychology",
year="2016",
author="Maglio, Sam J. and Polman, Evan",
volume="111",
number="2",
pages="141-158",
abstract="Forecasted probabilities rarely stay the same for long. Instead, they are subject to constant revision-moving upward or downward, uncertain events become more or less likely. Yet little is known about how people interpret probability estimates beyond static snapshots, like a 30% chance of rain. Here, we consider the cognitive, affective, and behavioral consequences of revisions to probability forecasts. Stemming from a lay belief that revisions signal the emergence of a trend, we find in 10 studies (comprising uncertain events such as weather, climate change, sex, sports, and wine) that upward changes to event-probability (e.g., increasing from 20% to 30%) cause events to feel less remote than downward changes (e.g., decreasing from 40% to 30%), and subsequently change people's behavior regarding those events despite the revised event-probabilities being the same. Our research sheds light on how revising the probabilities for future events changes how people manage those uncertain events. (PsycINFO Database Record<br><br>(c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0022-3514",
doi="10.1037/pspa0000058",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000058"
}