@article{ref1,
title="Using Monte Carlo simulation to assess uncertainty and variability of methamphetamine use and prevalence from wastewater analysis",
journal="International journal on drug policy",
year="2016",
author="Pei, Wei and Zhan, Qiu-Xia and Yan, Zhi-Yu and Ge, Lin-Ke and Zhang, Peng and Wang, Zhuang and Wang, De-Gao",
volume="36",
number="",
pages="1-7",
abstract="BACKGROUND: In recent years, methamphetamine (METH) has increased dramatically in China. However, little is known regarding the prevalence of METH use among the general population in China. <br><br>METHODS: We provided a method to estimate the consumption and prevalence of METH in a city based on wastewater analysis. Monte Carlo simulations were employed to assess the uncertainty and variability of the consumption and prevalence rate in Beijing. <br><br>RESULTS: METH consumption in Beijing based on Monte Carlo simulation varied between 1.3 and 5.2kg per day with a median of 2.6kg per day. In 2013, the 12-month prevalence of METH use was 0.58% (95% confidential interval 0.08-3.16) among the general population aged 15-64 years. A population-weight consumption map displayed the geographical differences in Beijing. <br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The proposed method dramatically improved the accuracy and reliability and can be used as a useful complementary tool to official methodologies for drug use monitoring. This report describes the first comprehensive study concerning the prevalence of METH among the general population in mainland China.<br><br>Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0955-3959",
doi="10.1016/j.drugpo.2016.06.013",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2016.06.013"
}