@article{ref1,
title="Final and dynamic mortality prediction from earthquakes in China",
journal="International journal of emergency management",
year="2017",
author="Zhu, Xiaoxin and Sun, Baiqing",
volume="13",
number="2",
pages="131-149",
abstract="This paper aims at predicting the dynamic death tolls in earthquakes using a combination of case-based reasoning and a times series model from realistic perspective. The proposed methodology consists of three steps: 1) fuzzy clustering to classify Chinese earthquakes; 2) mortality rates calculating to predict the final death tolls; 3) time series modelling to predict dynamic number of deaths. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20%, and opens the door for conducting final and dynamic death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach.     Keywords: humanitarian logistics; earthquakes; mortality prediction; CBR; case-based reasoning; times series model; China; dynamic modelling; China; seismic activity; death tolls; fuzzy clustering; fuzzy logic; classification; mortality rates; death forecasting.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1471-4825",
doi="10.1504/IJEM.2017.10003686",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJEM.2017.10003686"
}