@article{ref1,
title="An Empirical Bayes before-after evaluation of road safety effects of a new motorway in Norway",
journal="Accident analysis and prevention",
year="2017",
author="Elvik, Rune and Ulstein, Heidi and Wifstad, Kristina and Syrstad, Ragnhild S. and Seeberg, Aase R. and Gulbrandsen, Magnus U. and Welde, Morten",
volume="108",
number="",
pages="285-296",
abstract="This paper presents an Empirical Bayes before-after evaluation of the road safety effects of a new motorway (freeway) in Østfold county, Norway. The before-period was 1996-2002. The after-period was 2009-2015. The road was rebuilt from an undivided two-lane road into a divided four-lane road. The number of killed or seriously injured road users was reduced by 75 percent, controlling for (downward) long-term trends and regression-to-the-mean (statistically significant at the 5 percent level; recorded numbers 71 before, 11 after). There were small changes in the number of injury accidents (185 before, 123 after; net effect -3%) and the number of slightly injured road users (403 before 279 after; net effect +5%). Motorways appear to mainly reduce injury severity, not the number of accidents. The paper discusses challenges in implementing the Empirical Bayes design when less than ideal data are available.<br><br>Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0001-4575",
doi="10.1016/j.aap.2017.09.014",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2017.09.014"
}