@article{ref1,
title="Population-level predictions from cannabis risk perceptions to active cannabis use prevalence in the United States, 1991-2014",
journal="Addictive behaviors",
year="2018",
author="Parker, Maria A. and Anthony, James C.",
volume="82",
number="",
pages="101-104",
abstract="INTRODUCTION: A mosaic of evidence links risk perceptions with drug use in adolescence, including population summaries to guide public health campaigns, as well as subject-specific estimates on preventing an adolescent's drug use by manipulating that individual's prior risk perceptions. We re-visit these issues with a public health perspective, asking whether population-level cannabis risk perceptions of school-attending adolescents at one grade level might predict cannabis use prevalence two and four grade levels later. <br><br>METHODS: From 1991 to 2014, each year's United States &quot;Monitoring the Future&quot; (MTF) study population included 8th-, 10th-, & 12th-graders. Two and four years later, statistically independent school samples of the same cohorts were drawn and assessed (n ~ 16,000/year). Population-level modeling estimated cannabis use prevalence at time &quot;t&quot; (12th-grade) regressed on that same cohort's cannabis risk perceptions as had been measured at time &quot;t-4&quot; (8th-grade) and time &quot;t-2&quot; (10th-grade). <br><br>RESULTS: Higher cannabis risk perception levels for 10th-graders predict lower cannabis use prevalence when 10th-graders have become 12th-graders (β̂=-0.12), and higher cannabis risk perception levels of 8th-graders predict lower cannabis prevalence when 8th-graders have become 10th-graders (β̂=-0.27); p-values < 0.05. Across four-year spans, the prediction is null (p-value = 0.619). <br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This within-cohort across-grade population-level prediction prompts questions for drug prevention specialists, including &quot;Would a relatively small upward shift in a local area population's appraisal of risk perceptions be followed, two years later, by reduced population prevalence of cannabis use?&quot; Future randomized trial designs, health education, or prevention efforts focused on altering early adolescent cannabis risk perceptions might provide the most convincing and definitive evidence.<br><br>Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0306-4603",
doi="10.1016/j.addbeh.2018.02.030",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.addbeh.2018.02.030"
}